Looking Ahead... By Looking Back

One of the most important things to a successful basketball program is the ability to recruit high level players, particularly ones that fit its system. Recruiting is also one of the most misunderstood factors among college basketball fans, particularly with regards to expectations placed on incoming recruits. With that in mind, I've decided to take a fresh (or somewhat fresh) look at evaluating UNC and Duke's incoming recruits.

The reason that most fans don't really have a reasonable expectation for incoming recruits is pretty simple, they just aren't exposed to the players. That lack of exposure is not as drastic as it once was, with the prevalence of sites like Rivals and Scout. But those sites still skew the perceptions of these recruits, because they are making comparisons to other recruits in the class, not to current or past college players.

To remedy that, I have taken all the incoming recruits and given them a comparable past Duke or UNC player. Now, these comparisons are not predictions, only comparisons. If I were to compare a player to Tyler Hansborough (to pick one player I didn't mention) it doesn't mean I expect him to set the ACC career scoring record and be a perennial All-American. It just means I think that recruit's game will be very similar, on the college level, to Tyler Hansborough.

So, without further ado, here are the incoming recruits, in order of ranking (via ESPN.com):

Austin Rivers - SG (Duke)

Comparison - Jay Williams

Of course the first guy on my list is the toughest to find a reasonable comparison. Williams is probably as close as you can get to Doc's son. Much like Williams, Rivers possess the kind of handle And1 ballers drool over, particularly his nasty crossover. They both have sneaky explosiveness and high basketball IQs.

Rivers' outside shot is probably more advanced, particularly at his age, and the floater he uses when he gets in the lane is something Williams never really used often. That was more a result of the fact that Williams was a battering ram of a PG, which is where the comparison falls short. Rivers and Williams are not similar in terms of body type, but both possess the same skill sets otherwise.

Rivers will probably be asked to do less as a freshman than Williams was. Williams was given the reins to Duke's offense out of the gate, while Rivers will probably not be the primary ball handler next year for the Blue Devils. That said, Rivers will have the ball in his hands often, and when he does Duke fans will get flashbacks of a young Williams making lesser defenders look silly with his superb handle.

James McAdoo - PF (UNC)

Comparison - Antawn Jamison

McAdoo will arrive at Chapel Hill as college basketball's most polished freshman low post scorer. Jamison was a master at using positioning and quick moves to get his buckets, and McAdoo will show that same quality next year. Like Jamison, McAdoo has a sneaky face-up game with decent range out to 15 feet. McAdoo needs to work on that part of his game in order to translate to the next level, but while on campus he will give opponents fits.

McAdoo also possess a great motor. Jamison was never considered the type of effort guy that the aforementioned Mr. Hansborough was, but I can never remember him dogging it at all. More often than not Jamison beat his man down the court for an easy basket, just on pure hustle. Expect much of the same from McAdoo, as his motor never seems to run out of gas.

And lest we forget, McAdoo is a great rebounder and a pretty good shot blocker, much like Jamison. McAdoo is a great player, and will continue the recent tradition of talented UNC big men donning Carolina Blue and dominating on the low block.

P.J. Hariston - SG (UNC)

Comparison - Rashad McCants

Before I start talking about how these two players are alike, let's point out one important difference. Hariston is not the knucklehead that McCants turned out to be. There is no evidence to suggest any chemistry problems (either with teammates or chemical imbalances), and there is no reason to expect that there will be. Let's put it this way, I don't expect P.J. to be staring the the "The Booster Club 2: Back for more."

McCants' issues aside, these players games are very similar. Both are great long range shooters who slash to the hole and can finish with authority. Both have a handle that was not quite elite, but certainly above average. Harriston is probably a better free throw shooter (which was secretly McCants' achilles heel), and probably has another foot or 2 of range on his shot. Otherwise, they're pretty close.

Let's put it this way, Hariston will get buckets. Lots of Buckets. And if you notice, I didn't mention his defense. Not because it's bad or good, but because it isn't noteworthy. Much like McCants.

Michael Gbinije - SF (Duke)

Comparison - Roshown McLeod

I'm sure many of you are saying, "Roshown who?" McLeod was the first ever transfer to play at Duke, a 6'8'' wing forward who shot decent from deep and rebounded pretty well. McLeod never quite had the first step to be an excellent slasher, but he used his size, strength and agility to score at a high level. McLeod also proved to be an excellent rebounder from the Small Forward position.

All of these attributes fit Gbinije, who apparently has grown to 6'8'' over the past year (up from the 6'6'' most sites have him listed at). He's got a sweat stroke from three, but it's not automatic. He's an above average slasher, and a good finisher at the rim (which is where he differs from McLeod, who was never an elite leaper). Gbinije also has a nifty mid-range game that, given his new length, will be next to unstoppable when he has it going.

Both players were also sneaky good defensively, with the ability to guard multiple positions.

Basically, Gbinije is the type of player a team can win a title with, but probably not the guy to carry a team that far alone.

Marshall Plumlee - C (Duke)

Comparison - Brian Zoubeck

And you thought I was going to compare him to one of his brothers! Come on, admit it. Well, that's just too easy for me. Obviously, they are close comparisons, but Marshall has a much more traditional post game than either of his brothers, so hence you get Zoubeck.

People forget that Zoubeck was a highly touted recruit coming out of High School, and while Marshall isn't 7'1'', he does resemble a young Zoubeck (before the injuries and the weight gain). Marshall has a better array of post moves than Zoubeck did (if he has one post move he has more than Zoubeck did), but the main reason to draw the comparision is this: they both look incredibly awkward. More often than not with these two a play will be made and, as a spectator, you will think to yourself "how in the world did that guy do that." Not in a awed way, but in a "I can't believe that actually worked" kind of way. Just trust me on this.

Quinn Cook - PG (Duke)

Comparison - Chris Duhon

I'll go ahead and admit I think Cook will end up starting for the Blue Devils by the end of the year. I think his upside is so much higher than Tyler Thornton's, and I think Rivers stays at the SG spot. Regardless, Quinn's game reminds me of Duhon. Both are good, but not great, shooters from the outside. Both are good, but not great, dribble penetrators. But the intangibles that each brought as teammates and leaders will be the key. You always see Quinn smiling, joking with his teammates. That was the Duhon I remember, especially his first year in '01.

And don't sleep on Cook's defense. It has been good at times, and after a training camp with Coach K it only stands to be good all the time. If not, you'll never know if I'm right on this one, because Cook will never play.

Jackson Simmons/Stilman White -PF/PG (UNC)

I'm going to be honest, I have no comparison for these guys because they are completely off my radar. They will be lucky to see the floor for more than 5 minutes a game next year, particularly Simmons given UNC's frontcourt depth and the potential of UNC signing Desmond Hubert. So I'm punting on these two. Sorry.

I do think Simmons will be good in a year or two once he adds some bulk, in a similar fashion to Justin Knox this year as an off the bench support guy, who not much is counted on for. White...well, he gives blue steel a new member.

(Note - There is a good chance this list could grow over the next few weeks if some pending recruits decide to relocate to Tobacco Road this fall, including Hubert, DeAndre Daniels and/or Alex Murphy. If one or more of these fine fellows decides to come join our little party, then I'll update the post. Until then, I just too lazy to get into it.)

UNC/Duke End of Season Observations (Part 2)

If you missed Part 1 of the End of Season observations, you can see it here. Now on to the Blue Devils.

Duke

For Duke fans, this season will go down along with the '93-'94 and '98-'99 seasons as a year in which the expectation of a National Championship was realistic, but unrealized. This Duke team exhibited the same brand of dominance that those teams did. It may not have made the Final Four, but this team will stand the test of time as one of those "what might have been" Duke teams.

In reality this was a three part season for the Blue Devils. A three act play if you will.

Act I: Here's how this season began for Duke: hours worth of preseason coverage on ESPN, almost every national writer anointing them the favorite, predicting them to repeat as champions, returning the preseason player of the year and a preseason All-American, and a transcendent freshman point guard who, as a friend put it, was given the keys to a Lamborghini and told to just drive.

This was Duke's preseason world. Let me repeat, their PRESEASON world.

Then the games started and, for once, the prognosticators were right. Duke was that good. Adding Kyrie Irving to that team turned a formidable team into a great one. Possibly a historically great one. They rolled through every team they faced, and looked as if they were toying with them.

I watched a preseason game when Duke played St. Augustine College (a small, private, HBCU from Raleigh). Now this wasn't high level competition, but it being a preseason game you knew that Duke would go all out for 40 minutes, because they were trying to work out the kinks and see where they stood. I figured it would be a good chance to get an early look at how the team was shaping up. Plus the tickets were free.

The team went out and dropped 140 on St. Augustine. One hundred and forty points! St. Augustine scored 25 in the first half. Duke scored 75. That's the type of game that would give Ken Pomeroy a hard on. They looked unstoppable, they looked like world beaters. And they were...for the first eight games.

Act II: Like most second acts, this is when the plot thickened. In this play, the thickening was courtesy of a freak toe injury. Kyrie Irving's injury changed the entire college basketball season. It affected not just Duke, not just the ACC, but the entire country (at least the relevant teams anyway).

But then Nolan Smith decided that he was going to carry this team. It would be his team, and he would will it to greatness. And he did...for the most part. Duke overcame the loss of its star point guard by replacing him with another star point guard.

Smith's play this year cannot be overrated. He simply was outstanding. There are far too many games to count where Smith carried the Blue Devils to victory. I'm hard-pressed to find a more dominate season from a Duke player in recent memory.

Nevertheless, Duke fans should have known it was too good to be true. Not just after the beat down at the hands of St. John's, but also in the loss to Florida State. Duke was exposed as a team that had trouble with good defensive teams that could attack off the dribble. They just weren't powerful enough to overcome their deficiencies.

Yet Duke rolled through much of the year, and then rolled through the ACC tournament, dispatching UNC like they were swatting away an annoying gnat. And to top it all off, the savior was coming back. Everything looked like it was setting up for a story book finish. The derailing of Duke's most dominate season since 2001 would be set straight by the return of the prodigy. The stage was set for joyous finish. The 2010-11 Duke Team's preordained destiny would be fulfilled. Or so we all thought.

Act III: If this season really was a play, then Duke would have rolled through the NCAA's all the way to Houston, riding Kyrie Irving's climatic return and overcoming a host of historical foes. But this wasn't a work of fiction, and the storybook ending did not materialize.

Before we go into why this Duke team fell, think about who Duke would have played on their way to the finals if they had kept winning. Playing Michigan in the second round on the heels of the Jalen Rose drama. Then facing Arizona in a rematch of the 2001 title game. Then facing UConn, a team that had beaten Duke in '99 and '04, and realistically cost Duke two national titles. (Obviously the '99 game was in the title game, but the '04 Final Four game was the de facto National Title game, given the competition on the other side.) Then a potential match up with UNC in the final four, and then facing Butler again for the title. If Duke had won the title this year, I could have written a book with all the subplots involved.

Of course none of that came true, and Duke got its doors blown off by Arizona, which played an almost perfect offensive game in beating down the Devils. Not that Duke didn't have anything to do with that. Momo Jones consistently beat Irving off the dribble, and Duke could not rebound the basketball to save its life despite have a considerable height advantage.

Two thoughts on the Irving drama. (1) He was not all the way back from that injury and (2) his return hurt the team's chemistry. Neither of these things are easily or simply explained.

First, while the injury was healed Irving just wasn't 100% back. His lateral quickness was especially lacking, which is why he didn't shut down Momo Jones like he shut down Kalin Lucas, Korie Lucious, and Jacob Pullen earlier in the year. That, more than the next point, is why Duke got beat so bad.

Some folks, including Coach K (and myself), had no worries that Irving's return would affect the Blue Devil's chemistry. And we were right. In terms of getting along with his teammates, there was no noticeable problem. But it did affect the way the team performed. It changed the team's identity, and changed it to something the team wasn't able to execute as well as the post-Irving offensive identity. It was obvious if you watched those three tourney games. Duke looked out of sync. And it's no coincidence that Nolan Smith's worst game of the season came after Irving was inserted back in the lineup.

(And for all of you Duke fans who think that Irving's return didn't have some negative effect, just stop talking. Seriously, go away. You're starting to remind me of the State fans who still think they're going to get a top level coach while Debbie Yow is doing the hiring. And you're embarrassing the rational Duke fans around who aren't blinded by their fan-hood.)

All in all this was a season that had a lot of high points, but it will always be a big disappointment in the annuls of Duke history.

And now some quick hits:

Seth Curry/Andre Dawkins: There was a lot of hype coming into the season that Curry would be the next great shooter in the long line of Duke shooters, but I was of the opinion that it was Dawkins would have the breakout year. For the first 10 games I looked like quite the fortune teller, with Dawkins lighting it up as a fourth option and Curry looking lost playing high level basketball for the first time in 19 months.

But once we got to January, Dawkins fell off a cliff, and never showed more than flashes of his early season self. Curry, on the other hand, finally acclimated himself and began to show what all of the hype was about. He became a significant contributor, especially on defense, and it’s no coincidence that his injury coincided with Arizona's run that put that game away.

The future is bright for both of these players, but they need to be more consistent. They too often seem to get lost in the shuffle for long periods during games, and that has to change for them, and Duke, to be successful in the future.

Mason Plumlee/Miles Plumlee: Duke's biggest question coming into the year was how they would fill the leadership/rebounding/energy void left by Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubeck. The Plumlee brothers were suppose to provide that filler, but they came up short this year. While Mason rebounded at a high level for most of the season, both brothers, much like Curry and Dawkins, would disappear for long stretches.

Both brothers have a ton of talent, but they don't seem to be able to translate that talent to production on the court. It’s a mystery why they aren't bigger parts of the offense. Miles has a decent shot out to 15 feet, and Mason's athleticism should translate into better post offense. Perhaps you can blame the players, but you have to blame to coaching staff as well. Regardless of who is to blame the problem needs to be fixed for the Blue Devils to contend for a title next year.

UNC/Duke End of Season Observations

Another season has come and gone here on Tobacco Road. No day of the year is worse than the day after your team gets knocked out the Tourney. You can't listen to sports radio, or talk with your friends without being painfully reminded of the shortcomings of your team and your season. Days are spent ideally wondering what went wrong and what could have been. (Well, maybe not days, but you get the point.)

So it is with an eye towards closure that we look back on two successful, yet ultimately less than fulfilling seasons for Duke and UNC. The goal every year for both of these teams is a National Championship, and really anything less than that is falling short. That's what makes it great to follow them.

(for those of you that are of the impression that not making the Final Four is o.k. for these two teams, I'd like to point out the fact that both VCU and Butler made the Final Four. Both these teams should have made it this year given the fact that the field was so weak. And if either Duke or UNC had earned a trip to Houston, they would be prohibitive favorites, so yes it is a disappointment neither made it.)

We take a look at UNC first. Duke comes tomorrow (or the next day)

UNC

Unlike most years, UNC came into this season with less than lofty goals. After an offseason spent fending off the slings and arrows that come with an NIT berth and a decided fall from grace, UNC faithful were just hoping for sanity to be restored in the form of an NCAA Tournament invite. Maybe, just maybe they'd beat Duke a time or two. Maybe, just maybe, the anointed savior Harrison Barnes would drag the Tarheels back to prominence.

Given that start, its hard to imagine that any UNC fan would be disappointed with an Elite 8 exit this year, but the truth is they should be. UNC played as well as any team in the nation after Larry Drew's mother decided to tug her son back to Cali by the umbilical cord that is obvious still attached. They had two lottery pick big men, a lottery pick on the wing who showed a penchant for hitting big shots in the clutch and they had a competent point guard for the first time since Ty Lawson started cashing his NBA checks. They were legitimately a contender for the title by the time the season ended. For a team with that pedigree, not getting to the final weekend is a disappointment.

What Went Wrong

UNC feel victim to two critical shortcomings, (1) a lack of front-court depth and (2) a lack of a consistent quality shooter. Lets look at each in turn:

Front Court: At the start of the season I thought this was UNC's biggest weakness. John Henson and Tyler Zeller were unquestionably talented, but neither had really reached their full potential.

Henson had been miscast for much of his first year as a semi-perimeter player. At the end of last year he came around as a shot blocking, ally-op catching beast. But he still looked like an Ethiopian refugee, and the thought of him holding up down low all season scared me.

Zeller on the other hand had shown flashes of potential as a deadly low post scorer and a defensive stopper. But it was incredibly reasonable to assume that he wouldn't make it through the season without a stint in street clothes, you know seeing as how he hadn't done that yet in his two years at UNC.

And after the Wear Twins’ unexpected departure, the only back up was a graduate student transfer from a football school who only averaged 6 points a game the year before. Suddenly, UNC’s biggest strength (arguably) from a year before was now a glaring weakness.

As it turns out, I couldn’t have been more wrong. Zeller played an injury free year logging more minutes than at any other time in his UNC career. His low post scoring was an unsung, but major, factor in UNC’s run to the elite eight. Henson also flourished this year, showing exactly why he was such a highly rated recruit. His defense alone had an immeasurable impact on UNC’s team. The fact that they were one of the top defensive teams in the country is a direct correlation from Henson’s ability to protect the rim.

The unsung hero of course was Knox, who came in and gave UNC exactly what it needed, a tough minded, hardworking low post player who had just enough offensively to be able to spell Henson and Zeller for long stretches without UNC having to change their style.

But the fact that Henson was so important, such an x-factor, really showed in UNC’s loss to Kentucky. With Henson on the bench, UNC’s chances at winning dramatically went down. If not for Harrison Barnes’ late game run, UNC probably loses that game by double figures. That’s how important Henson was, and that’s how glaring UNC’s lack of front court depth was in the end.

Lack of Shooters: UNC desperately needed someone to step up and nail a big three in the Kentucky loss. They needed it in plenty of other games as well, particularly the loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament. They never got it because they never had one guy who could just flat out shoot.

Here’s a list of UNC’s options on the wings this year: Dexter Strickland, Harrison Barnes, Leslie McDonald and Reggie Bullock.

Strickland will never be confused with a shooter, except by Dexter Strickland. His awful shot selection was a thorn in many a UNC fan’s side, and it hurt the team. He was a ball stopper many nights, and while he’d turn in a good game here and there, they were outnumbered by the games where he disrupted the offense’s flow with his poor decision making.

Barnes definitely has a good shot, but that’s not his game. His value was his ability to do a lot of things; slash to the hoop, rebound, and hit shots. But a spot up three point shooter he was not, and UNC never really ran him off screens to get him those looks.

Bullock and McDonald were actually pretty similar players this year. At times they looked like the missing piece, nailing three after three and propelling UNC to new heights. Other times you didn’t even know they were on the court. Just too inconsistent for what UNC needed his year.

The fact that UNC didn’t have that one guy who could knock down the run stopping, momentum shifting three was going to catch up to them eventually. It just so happened to catch up to them against Kentucky.

What Went Right

Point Guard: Two things went right here. First, Larry Drew II left the team. I could go on ad nauseum on how this helped, but the most important thing it did was it cleared the air. Drew leaving the team was like taking a shower after your hot water heater has been broken for a week. It was just needed, and everyone knew it, and after it was done all that was left was a refreshing feeling that is difficult to describe.

Second, UNC has found its next really good point guard in Kendall Marshall. Time will tell if he goes down as being near as good as Felton and Lawson, but he's off to a good start. I'm not 100% sold on him being great, but he's really good and you can win a national title with him as your point guard.

Side note: Funniest comparison I've heard, courtesy of Bomani Jones: Marshall is the Chad Pennington of point guards. I think that's not a knock per say, but it speaks to my reluctance to label him the next great thing. His ceiling just isn't that high. He's got unparalleled court vision, and he seems to be a great leader, but his game has far to many holes (outside shooting, finishing at the rim, defending the point of attack) for me to think he will be dominant.

Harrison Barnes: No he wasn't an All-American. No he didn't score 40 points a game. But he did give UNC something it didn't have last year: swagger. UNC wasn't going to be punked this year, not with Barnes on the floor. He would WILL them back anytime they started to let games slip (like against Kentucky). The 09-10 Tarheels never had that guy, and it was sorely needed. Barnes made clutch shot after clutch shot. He even spawned the second best fake UNC twitter account this year. In short, he was exactly what UNC needed.

(And he did all this while being saddled with the dumbest nickname ever. Black Falcon? Really? That's the best you could come up with? We should have a contest, if he comes back, to get him a proper nickname. Something worthy of his talents. Because Black Falcon really isn't. It sounds like the token black guy/gay guy in the super friends fortress or something. I would have settled for the "Ames Assassin" or some other cheesy alliterative nickname over the Black Falcon.)

Front Court: I talked about this a lot above, but Henson and Zeller really were the cogs that made this UNC team go. Once Marshall started running this team you really got to see exactly why UNC was so scary with those two guys running the court. It makes you wonder where this team would be if Coach Williams had let Marshall start from day one.

All in all it was a good year for UNC. Not a great year, and not really a successful one by UNC standards. But a good one. I won't talk now about what next year holds. Once we know who's coming back and who's leaving, we will delve into what next year may look like for this team.

Stay tuned for Duke's end of season critique coming up in the next couple of days.

About Life on Tobacco Road

Let's get a few things out of the way first before I dive into the dark and mysterious world that is internet blogging.

1) Yes, I am a life-long Duke fan. I watched with baited breath when Grant Hill flung that full court pass to Christian Laettner in what turned out to be the greatest tournament game of my lifetime. I own a piece of the old Cameron Indoor Stadium floor. I dress my kids in Duke gear, and have taught them to scream "BOO Carolina!", much to my wife's displeasure. That said, I married a Carolina fan (and by extension, her family of devout Carolina supporters) and have been to just as many games in the Dean Dome as Cameron. They're both great programs, and that's what makes this rivalry great.

2) This is a blog that will cover both UNC and Duke, in as close to a fair and balanced manner as I, and anyone that contributes, can provide (And when I say fair and balance, I'm not selling that FOX news brand of fair and balanced.) You may think this is an untenable juxtaposition after reading my first clarification. To that I say - just because I'm a Duke fan doesn't mean I'm a Duke apologist or a UNC hater. I have fan allegiance, but I will be critical of Duke when necessary just as I will heap praise upon UNC when warranted. Don't believe me? Keep reading my posts and you will be converted.

3) If you hadn't guessed from the title of this blog, or my first two clarifications, this is a blog about basketball here on tobacco road. That means Duke and Carolina. There will be no significant blog posts on NC State or any other middling basketball program near this area. To State fans who have stumbled upon this blog, thanks for coming but its probably not the place for you. And to those State fans who think you belong in the discussion of basketball on Tobacco road I have only one thing to say to you - go to bed, if you please. You're two piddly little titles sprinkled in between decades of mediocrity do not entitle you to a place in this discussion any more than your geographic location. You are not worthy of mention here, and your incessant whining bugs the crap out of the rest of us. You are not our rival. Let me repeat, YOU ARE NOT OUR RIVAL. And no matter how self-important you may think you are, the rest of us are just sitting here laughing at you like the red-headed step child you are.

So now you know where I'm coming from. Hopefully this blog will be both informative and humorous. I welcome your comments and discussions. Its why I'm starting this, because its more fun to talk about this stuff with both sides than on Duke or Carolina centric blogs or discussion boards. I hope everyone enjoys, and thanks so much for reading. Your readership is the greatest compliment I can receive.

- Brice