The reason that most fans don't really have a reasonable expectation for incoming recruits is pretty simple, they just aren't exposed to the players. That lack of exposure is not as drastic as it once was, with the prevalence of sites like Rivals and Scout. But those sites still skew the perceptions of these recruits, because they are making comparisons to other recruits in the class, not to current or past college players.
To remedy that, I have taken all the incoming recruits and given them a comparable past Duke or UNC player. Now, these comparisons are not predictions, only comparisons. If I were to compare a player to Tyler Hansborough (to pick one player I didn't mention) it doesn't mean I expect him to set the ACC career scoring record and be a perennial All-American. It just means I think that recruit's game will be very similar, on the college level, to Tyler Hansborough.
So, without further ado, here are the incoming recruits, in order of ranking (via ESPN.com):
Austin Rivers - SG (Duke)
Comparison - Jay Williams
Of course the first guy on my list is the toughest to find a reasonable comparison. Williams is probably as close as you can get to Doc's son. Much like Williams, Rivers possess the kind of handle And1 ballers drool over, particularly his nasty crossover. They both have sneaky explosiveness and high basketball IQs.
Rivers' outside shot is probably more advanced, particularly at his age, and the floater he uses when he gets in the lane is something Williams never really used often. That was more a result of the fact that Williams was a battering ram of a PG, which is where the comparison falls short. Rivers and Williams are not similar in terms of body type, but both possess the same skill sets otherwise.
Rivers will probably be asked to do less as a freshman than Williams was. Williams was given the reins to Duke's offense out of the gate, while Rivers will probably not be the primary ball handler next year for the Blue Devils. That said, Rivers will have the ball in his hands often, and when he does Duke fans will get flashbacks of a young Williams making lesser defenders look silly with his superb handle.
James McAdoo - PF (UNC)
Comparison - Antawn Jamison
McAdoo will arrive at Chapel Hill as college basketball's most polished freshman low post scorer. Jamison was a master at using positioning and quick moves to get his buckets, and McAdoo will show that same quality next year. Like Jamison, McAdoo has a sneaky face-up game with decent range out to 15 feet. McAdoo needs to work on that part of his game in order to translate to the next level, but while on campus he will give opponents fits.
McAdoo also possess a great motor. Jamison was never considered the type of effort guy that the aforementioned Mr. Hansborough was, but I can never remember him dogging it at all. More often than not Jamison beat his man down the court for an easy basket, just on pure hustle. Expect much of the same from McAdoo, as his motor never seems to run out of gas.
And lest we forget, McAdoo is a great rebounder and a pretty good shot blocker, much like Jamison. McAdoo is a great player, and will continue the recent tradition of talented UNC big men donning Carolina Blue and dominating on the low block.
P.J. Hariston - SG (UNC)
Comparison - Rashad McCants
Before I start talking about how these two players are alike, let's point out one important difference. Hariston is not the knucklehead that McCants turned out to be. There is no evidence to suggest any chemistry problems (either with teammates or chemical imbalances), and there is no reason to expect that there will be. Let's put it this way, I don't expect P.J. to be staring the the "The Booster Club 2: Back for more."
McCants' issues aside, these players games are very similar. Both are great long range shooters who slash to the hole and can finish with authority. Both have a handle that was not quite elite, but certainly above average. Harriston is probably a better free throw shooter (which was secretly McCants' achilles heel), and probably has another foot or 2 of range on his shot. Otherwise, they're pretty close.
Let's put it this way, Hariston will get buckets. Lots of Buckets. And if you notice, I didn't mention his defense. Not because it's bad or good, but because it isn't noteworthy. Much like McCants.
Michael Gbinije - SF (Duke)
Comparison - Roshown McLeod
I'm sure many of you are saying, "Roshown who?" McLeod was the first ever transfer to play at Duke, a 6'8'' wing forward who shot decent from deep and rebounded pretty well. McLeod never quite had the first step to be an excellent slasher, but he used his size, strength and agility to score at a high level. McLeod also proved to be an excellent rebounder from the Small Forward position.
All of these attributes fit Gbinije, who apparently has grown to 6'8'' over the past year (up from the 6'6'' most sites have him listed at). He's got a sweat stroke from three, but it's not automatic. He's an above average slasher, and a good finisher at the rim (which is where he differs from McLeod, who was never an elite leaper). Gbinije also has a nifty mid-range game that, given his new length, will be next to unstoppable when he has it going.
Both players were also sneaky good defensively, with the ability to guard multiple positions.
Basically, Gbinije is the type of player a team can win a title with, but probably not the guy to carry a team that far alone.
Marshall Plumlee - C (Duke)
Comparison - Brian Zoubeck
And you thought I was going to compare him to one of his brothers! Come on, admit it. Well, that's just too easy for me. Obviously, they are close comparisons, but Marshall has a much more traditional post game than either of his brothers, so hence you get Zoubeck.
People forget that Zoubeck was a highly touted recruit coming out of High School, and while Marshall isn't 7'1'', he does resemble a young Zoubeck (before the injuries and the weight gain). Marshall has a better array of post moves than Zoubeck did (if he has one post move he has more than Zoubeck did), but the main reason to draw the comparision is this: they both look incredibly awkward. More often than not with these two a play will be made and, as a spectator, you will think to yourself "how in the world did that guy do that." Not in a awed way, but in a "I can't believe that actually worked" kind of way. Just trust me on this.
Quinn Cook - PG (Duke)
Comparison - Chris Duhon
I'll go ahead and admit I think Cook will end up starting for the Blue Devils by the end of the year. I think his upside is so much higher than Tyler Thornton's, and I think Rivers stays at the SG spot. Regardless, Quinn's game reminds me of Duhon. Both are good, but not great, shooters from the outside. Both are good, but not great, dribble penetrators. But the intangibles that each brought as teammates and leaders will be the key. You always see Quinn smiling, joking with his teammates. That was the Duhon I remember, especially his first year in '01.
And don't sleep on Cook's defense. It has been good at times, and after a training camp with Coach K it only stands to be good all the time. If not, you'll never know if I'm right on this one, because Cook will never play.
Jackson Simmons/Stilman White -PF/PG (UNC)
I'm going to be honest, I have no comparison for these guys because they are completely off my radar. They will be lucky to see the floor for more than 5 minutes a game next year, particularly Simmons given UNC's frontcourt depth and the potential of UNC signing Desmond Hubert. So I'm punting on these two. Sorry.
I do think Simmons will be good in a year or two once he adds some bulk, in a similar fashion to Justin Knox this year as an off the bench support guy, who not much is counted on for. White...well, he gives blue steel a new member.
(Note - There is a good chance this list could grow over the next few weeks if some pending recruits decide to relocate to Tobacco Road this fall, including Hubert, DeAndre Daniels and/or Alex Murphy. If one or more of these fine fellows decides to come join our little party, then I'll update the post. Until then, I just too lazy to get into it.)
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